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Posted on MAY 28, 2019

Economic & Market Outlook - Second Quarter 2019


The extreme volatility experienced in late 2018 and early 2019 serves as a reminder that investing is about staying the course and focusing on long‐term investment goals rather than trying to predict short‐term market moves. As seen in the performance overview below, the bulk of the fourth quarter 2018 equity and commodity market losses were largely recouped in the first quarter of 2019.

Economic Outlook

Economic growth in the US has generally been in line with our expectations. The pace of growth in 2018 was above‐trend, driven by benefits from the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017. In 2019, US GDP growth is decelerating to an expected annual growth rate near 2%. Furthermore, we continue to believe there will not be a recession in 2019. If the economic expansion continues for one more quarter, the current expansion will become the longest on record.

Outside the US, economic data has been mixed. Eurozone growth decelerated from an already meager pace and the uncertainty surrounding the Brexit saga drags on. Germany, Europe‚Äôs largest economy and the fourth largest in the world, has been weaker than expected. In China, ongoing efforts to stimulate the economy are showing early signs of taking hold. A resolution to the current trade conflict would help the Chinese economy achieve the 6.0%‐6.5% real GDP growth target that policymakers are intent on reaching.

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Any figures, opinions or investment strategies set out are for information purposes only, based on certain assumptions and current market conditions and are subject to change without prior notice. All information presented herein is considered to be accurate at the time of writing.

This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision and it should not be relied upon by you in evaluating the merits of investing in any securities or products. Johnson Financial Group does not provide legal or tax advice to clients. Investors should make an independent assessment of the tax and legal implications and determine, together with their own professional advisers, if any investment strategy mentioned herein is believed to be suitable to their personal goals. Investors should ensure that they obtain all available relevant information before making any investment.

The performance data shown represents the past performance of Johnson Financial Group model strategies and does not include management fees charged by Johnson Financial Group. Investment strategies are customized for Johnson Financial Group clients and client portfolios may not reflect the asset allocations and performance in this publication. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Asset allocation and diversification do not assure or guarantee better performance and cannot eliminate the risk of investment losses. Investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Non‐depository investment products offered through Johnson Financial Group are not FDIC insured, not bank guaranteed and may lose value.